September 2012
27th September, 12pm
There were some superb Champions League matches last week, plenty of drama and goals as the competition kicked off for the new season. Our bet concerned two English teams with tough matches, we’d gone with a long shot of a draw in both games, and boy did we get close to pulling this one off! The results were a 3-2 win for Real Madrid over Man City, while Chelsea and Juventus drew 2-2. Unfortunately for the bet, Cristiano Ronaldo hadn’t read the script and scored a very late winner for Madrid. Man City will be furious, having thrown away the 2-1 lead they held after 85 minutes.
After the Capital One cup this week, we are back to Premier League action on Saturday. We’ve got a bet for one of the big live games, which is the Saturday tea time match between Man Utd and Spurs. These games haven’t been short of entertainment or controversy, and I’m expecting another cracker this time. The way these two have started the season its difficult to pick the winner, even though Man Utd have been racking up the points, their performances haven’t been the most convincing. Spurs have improved after a couple of early-season draws, although their recent wins were against bottom half teams.
Goals-wise, Man Utd have been scoring a few, but looking a little shaky at the back too. As for Spurs, every single Premier League game they’ve been involved in this season has seen at least one goal for each team. If you hadn’t guessed already, we’re going for goals!
Lets take a look at the Over 2.5 goals market, prices from Betfair:
Over 2.5 goals 1.74
Under 2.5 goals 2.32
It’s odds-on, but its a fair price. If I was going correct score for this game, I’d probably pick a Man Utd win of 2-1 or 3-1, but equally, I wouldn’t be that surprised to see something like 4-2! Whatever it finishes up, the bet has to be overs.
Saturday 29th September. 5:30pm. Premier League.
Man Utd v Spurs. Over 2.5 goals on Betfair. £20 @ 1.74
18th September, 5pm
First up, good news from our first September bet. We had a double bet on the match odds / goals combined market of England to beat Moldova and more than 2.5 goals. England cruised to an easy 5-0 away victory and we collected in style! In fact, the bet was pretty much over after just 32 minutes, England racing into a 3-0 lead that never looked likely to be threatened.
This week is the first round of Champions League matches, with a number of superb looking games scheduled for tonight and tomorrow. Perhaps the biggest match in Europe tonight sees Manchester City travel to Madrid to take on Real, before the highlight tomorrow night as Chelsea host Italian champions Juventus.
As these are the two biggest games, lets have a look at the odds:
Tonight
Real Madrid 1.61
Draw 4.5
Man City 6.2
Tomorrow
Chelsea 2.22
Draw 3.35
Juventus 3.85
For the first game the price on Madrid looks a little tight. They haven’t made the best start to the season and Man City should present a stern challenge. Can City go out there and beat them? Not according to the odds, with better than 5/1 if you want to back it. For me, I think City would be more than happy with an away draw, which would also stop the rot for Madrid.
Tomorrow night, Chelsea are better than even money at home to Juventus. There’s a bit of form in the book for each team and its mostly pretty good. Chelsea started off with a few wins before their super cup humbling and then a 0-0 draw, whereas Juventus have won all five matches they have played. That said, under 3/1 about their win seems a little low, particularly given the way Chelsea set up in this competition last year. As per the Tuesday night game (and although they wouldn’t admit to it!) I think a draw would suit both teams here.
So today’s bet is going to be a long shot, we’re going to have a bash at the draw double at fairly tasty looking odds! Because this an undoubted outsider, lets keep the stake small.
Todays bet:
Tuesday 18th September and Wednesday 19th September. 7:45pm kick offs. European Champions League.
Real Madrid v Man City.
AND
Chelsea v Juventus.
A double of both games to finish in a draw. £3 @ approx 15s
Enjoy the games this week!
6th September, 11am
We finished August with a wager on Chelsea in the European Super Cup, combining them with an Over 2.5 goals double at decent odds. Unfortunately for the bet, Chelsea were absolutely blown away by a stunning Atletico Madrid performance which saw them 4 goals up before Chelsea hit a late consolation goal. One of the reasons for keeping the stake small in a game like this was the unpredictable nature of some of these one-off games. You can never be quite sure of the performance a team might put in. Put it this way, had this game been the Champions League final you can be sure that Chelsea would have been better prepared!
This week we get a break from Premier League football as its time for the first round of qualifying games for the World Cup of 2014. This will be England’s first match since their Euro 2012 campaign ended in a penalty shootout against Italy. There were certainly encouraging things about their performance in the summer, but they will need to step it up another level if they are to be in with any chance in Brazil in a couple of years time.
As has been the case in recent years, England again play on Friday night, their first game is away in Moldova. England go into this one with a number of early-season injury problems, several key players are going to be watching from home for this one, but they will still be able to field a strong side. Lets have a look at the odds and get a bet on!
Match odds:
Moldova 15
Draw 5.3
England 1.33
Goals odds, Over 2.5 market:
Under 2.5 goals 2.04
Over 2.5 goals 1.94
The prices here are suggesting an England victory, but a flip of the coin for the number of goals. As per our last bet, we’re going to double these two up, and go for an England victory and over 2.5 goals. With more than 24 hours to kick off, the prices are still settling on Betfair, but are hoping for a price well above even money for this bet. If you simply multiply up the prices of the two single bets, you get around 2.58 with the current prices, so I’m looking for around 2.6 for this bet.
If you are placing it, you can put an order in now, or check the market a bit closer to kick off. Enjoy the game!
Todays bet:
Friday 7th September. 7:45pm. World Cup 2014 qualifier.
Moldova v England. England to win, over 2.5 goals double on Betfair. £5 @ approx 2.6 (check for best price nearer to kick off)