Online betting diary – October 2012

October 2012

25th October, 2pm

A cracking game at Spurs last weekend, but the final result was no good for our bet. Some generous Spurs defending saw them lose a 2-1 lead and Chelsea ran out winners with a couple of late goals from Juan Mata. There were some signs of weakness in the Chelsea defence though, but unfortunately for us these did not show through until their Champions League game in the Ukraine last night.

We’re going to stick with Chelsea for our next bet, as the weekends big game sees them entertaining Manchester United at the bridge. Probably the biggest game of the season so far, it might only be October, but this is a top of the table clash that is unlikely to disappoint! We go into the game with a familiar look to the league table, but some unfamiliar performances from both teams, perhaps somewhat masked by their ability to score goals and get out of the trouble poor defending has caused.

A look to the winner market shows Chelsea as the favourites, but not by a great deal:

Chelsea 2.52
Man Utd 3.1
Draw 3.5

As expected, the draw no bet market shows the two teams fairly evenly matched, with Chelsea just a bit lower than the toss of a coin:

Chelsea 1.8
Man Utd 2.2

I’m in two minds about a bet here. It’s far too early in the season to call this a must-win game for either side, but perhaps it is a must-not-lose game for Manchester United? Should they lose, they will already be 7 points and several goals behind Chelsea, and in the Premier League that is a lot to make up.

The other call is goals. With the recent defending of both teams, plus the injuries at Man Utd and the suspension of Terry at Chelsea, it’s fair to say most people are expecting goals here. A look at the 2.5 and 3.5 markets shows that the consensus is a game of 3 goals:

Over 2.5 goals 1.78
Under 2.5 goals 2.3


Over 3.5 goals 2.96
Under 3.5 goals 1.52

So we’ve got over 2.5 goals as odds-on, but over 3.5 goals at close to a 2/1 shot. I think there could be value in backing Man Utd, particularly as a trade move if they were to score first. I might have a little bet on this on the side, but the main value for me is in the goals market. I can easily see this game having 4 goals, and the extra value in the price from over 2.5 goals seals this particular deal.

Todays bet:

Sunday 28th October. 4pm. Premier League.

Chelsea v Man Utd. Over 3.5 goals. £20 @ 2.96

Good luck, enjoy the match!

19th October, 2pm

We were a little unlucky with our selection of bets on the England v San Marino game. It finished 5-0, but could easily have been 7 or 8. The 5-0 result was right at the bottom of our list of correct scores to back, and returned £20.10 from our total stake of £21! A decent try, and we’re ready to try again this week…

It’s Premier League this Saturday, and most of the big teams are in action, including the London derby of Spurs v Chelsea to kick things off at lunchtime. This is arguably the biggest game of the day, so we’re going to spice it up a little more with a bet!

How are the teams looking? Well, Chelsea are in pole position with 6 wins and a draw from their 7 games. Spurs are in 5th place after a decent start to the season, including a superb win at Old Trafford. They remain unbeaten in 4 games at home, although 2 of these have finished in a draw.

In the news today we hear that Scott Parker is still a way off returning from injury, and I actually wonder if this is a blessing in disguise? Yes, he is a fantastic player, but the midfield is looking settled this season, with a fine combination of pace and power. Dembele in particular has impressed since his arrival, while we know all about the twin threats of Bale and Lennon on the wings. The current run of 4 consecutive league victories is fine form to take into the Chelsea game.

How about Chelsea? A look at their away matches to date this season shows only one real test, the away win at Arsenal. But they were perhaps a little fortunate to take all 3 points there, Arsenal certainly had their chances to at least grab the draw. The other blip on the Chelsea away record is the 0-0 draw at London rivals QPR.

You might be able to tell by now that I’m leaning towards the home team here, although I’m not so sure about an outright bet. Instead, its time for a return to one of my favoured markets, the Draw No Bet market. Lets have a look at the prices:

Spurs 1.9
Chelsea 2.08

Close to a flip of a coin then, with the safety net of our money back if the match does end in a draw. My feeling is that Spurs are too good at the moment to be undone at home, so backing Spurs here is the bet we’re going to make.

Saturday 20th October. 12:45pm. Premier League.

Spurs v Chelsea. Spurs to win in the Draw No Bet market on Betfair. £20 @ 1.9

Good luck, enjoy the match!

8th October, 2pm

We finished September with a decent size bet on the Man Utd v Spurs Premier League game. Looking at the strengths of the two teams going forward, we went for over 2.5 goals, and the bet was done and dusted shortly after half time. Spurs played a fantastic counter-attacking game and put Man Utd to the sword at home for the first time in over 20 years! The expected 2nd half battering from Manchester United was just about withstood, and the match finished 2-3, comfortably bringing home the cash.

The Premier League table is now starting to shape up with a more familiar look, but we have to wait a couple of weeks for the next round of games. This week we are back to World Cup qualifiers, and the Friday night match sees England take on minnows San Marino at Wembley.

There are some prices up already for this game, and if you fancy backing England you’re going to have to bet a lot to win anything worthwhile! The current odds available on Betfair are just 1.01! You’d have to bet £100 to win a quid! Obviously this game is an absolute home banker, England will easily beat the team of part timers, arguably this sort of qualifier such a miss-match to be a waste of time for everyone involved.

However, although the win market isn’t worth touching, there are plenty of other betting options for a game like this. One particular favourite of mine is the correct score market, England will be looking to run up a decent goal difference in this one, which may be important further down the line. We can realistically expect England to knock in a fair few, but just how many?

In this sort of game, you can rely on a few things:

1. England will be well ahead by the hour
2. Once ahead they will make a few changes
3. San Marino will tire towards the end of the game, making late goals more likely

So how do we assess a decent bet? Firstly, lets assume that San Marino will do the best to keep it tight and keep the score down early in the game. If they achieve this, it might be something like 2-0 or 3-0 at half time. But they are going to tire in the second half, and although England will sub some of the more important players, they will be bringing on younger players keen to make an impression. My guess is that it will be 4-0 by around the hour mark, and then England will have another half hour to really work on the goal difference. Worst case scenario is something like 5-0, best case as many as 8 or 9-0.

So the suggestion is to back a range of possible outcomes between 5-0 and 9-0. The risk here is that San Marino manage to squeeze a goal, which looking at the history books certainly isn’t impossible – just ask Stuart Pearce!! So we’ll cover this possibility with a small bet either San Marino to score, or “Both Teams to Score” (which is essentially the same thing!). The ideal outcome from this sort of bet is that England rack up a huge number of goals whilst keeping a clean sheet, hence we hit a winner with fairly large odds!


The prices are up, and we can now get odds on anything up to 14-0 to England! We’re going to cap our bet at 10-0 though, and the best odds available currently for each selection are as follows:

England 5-0 San Marino 6.7
England 6-0 San Marino 7.5
England 7-0 San Marino 9.0
England 8-0 San Marino 12.0
England 9-0 San Marino 17.0
England 10-0 San Marino 26.0

We also want to back “both teams to score” – in case San Marino manage to nick one. The best price for this is currently 8.0.

We’re going to stake £3 on every single one of these selections, for a total bet of £21. As long as England get 5 or more, we should break even at worst. If it finishes 9-0 or 10-0 we’re on for a big pay off!

Enjoy the game, good luck.