October 2011
31st October, 4pm
Another close one on the Everton game. In an eventful game, a combination of woeful goalkeeping and a missed penalty put paid to our chances and this one goes down as a loss.
That bet brings our October betting to a close, with the final score for the month a disappointing -£22.40. A shame this, barring a couple of very near misses we’d have comfortably shown a profit. Roll on November, the first update will be looking at the Champions League.
26th October, 4pm
Confortable win for Man Utd at Aldershot last night, they won’t have it so easy away at Everton on Saturday, and it’s Everton we are looking at tonight. They host Chelsea in the Carling Cup, with the current price for the Everton win showing as 3.1 on Betfair. For me this is a touch high:
– realistic trophy chance for Everton
– John Terry out of the Chelsea defence
– Chelsea looking ahead to Arsenal game at the weekend
– Chelsea expected to rest a few players
Its not exactly nailed on, and I certainly wouldn’t rule out a draw. So rather than back Everton outright, I think a small bet on Everton to progress looks good to me. The Betfair “To Qualify” market currently shows Everton at 2.12 to go through, its a tenner on this for me.
24th October, 1pm
Quick update from the previous bet, Liverpool v Man Utd finished 1-1, so a narrow miss there. We have De Gea to blame for the losing bet, pulling off a couple of stunning late saves to deny Liverpool the win.
Following the incredible scoreline yesterday the Premier League outright market has been completely turned on its head, with Man City now installed as favourites. Hopefully some of you took the advice last month to lay Man Utd at around 1.8 on Betfair, they are now trading at 3.25! I don’t think I’ll be backing either of the top two teams at the moment, this season still has a long way to go.
This week we’ll be looking at the Carling Cup, I have a fancied bet to follow later, stay tuned!
10th October, 1pm
Rather predictability England contrived to make hard work of qualification on Friday night, but at least this brought in our bet! The final score was Montenegro 2 – 2 England. It was an eventful game, with Wayne Rooney making the wrong sort of headlines again. He will no doubt be rather embarrased about the moment of madness that saw him sent off late in the second half. It’s a shame, because for the last year or two he’s done very well to keep a lid on that sort of behaviour, and hopefully this is the last we will see of it. He’s Englands most potent attacking force and we need him on the pitch, he won’t win any International medals sat in the stands.
Looking ahead we are back to the Premier League this week, and Rooney will be back in Liverpool with Manchester United. This is one of the biggest Premier League games of the season, and this year is shaping up to be a cracker. Early betting on Betfair shows United at 2.44 with Liverpool at 3.25. Big odds on the home side who are unbeaten at Anfield.
Its a difficult game to call though, one that really could go either way. Manchester United haven’t been as defensively solid as recent years, and its hard to see them keeping Liverpool out in this one. At the other end of the pitch they’ve certainly been doing the business, so it just doesn’t look like being a low scoring game. At a wild guess, I can see a scoreline of something like 2-2, or 2-1, 3-1 to either side. So on that basis, todays bet is for goals, and over at Betfair you can currently get even money on the Over 2.5 goals market. That price is good enough for me, I’ll take it from kick off.
Todays bet. £20, Liverpool v Manchester United to be over 2.5 goals.
7th October, 12pm
A quick update on the England game tonight. The price has actually traded lower for most of the week, and is currently at 1.81. I still won’t be backing them at these odds, but hopefully qualification will be wrapped up this evening.
Also a quick note of thanks for those of you who have contacted us about the betting diary, we are always pleased to hear your feedback. Particular thanks go to Ian in the South East, who wrote to say he joined Betclic last month to place the HT/FT England bet, and was pleased “…to see England play the perfect game!” Always nice to hear from a winner, hopefully tonight will bring us another.
3rd October, 4pm
This week is an international week, and the new format means football on Friday night. After a successful bet on England last time, we’re going to concentrate on their game away to Montenegro.
This will be Englands last game in the group, and a draw is good enough for them to qualify for the finals next summer. Games like this can be dangerous betting territory, with form sometimes going out the window and the odd strange result cropping up. Particularly in this case where Montenegro have to win to have any chance of overhauling England at the top of the group. So with that in mind it will be a bet of just £10 on this, but I do still think there’s a market worth a little look.
We’re heading back to Betfair for this one, with the market in question being “England clean sheet?”
Montenegro’s games have all been fairly tight and included the 0-0 draw at Wembley a year ago, although they have scored in every other game. England have defended fairly well on the whole, with just 3 goals conceded through the campaign. This perhaps doesn’t quite tell the full story though, just ask Robert Earnshaw! England will be without Rio Ferdinand and have looked a little wobbly at times lately. So on that basis I think the price of 1.74 for England NOT to keep a clean sheet looks quite appealing.
One other quick point of note regarding this match is the match odds market on Betfair. England are currently available at 1.83 to win. This is a touch low for my liking and I won’t be backing them at that price. It will be interesting to see how this price moves as we approach the weekend.
For todays bet, remember it’s a smaller bet of just £10 for England not to keep a clean sheet. Good luck, and enjoy the match.
2nd October, 2pm
We finished September £20 in the red, but if you’d taken advantage of the Betclic risk free £30 as advised, you should still have seen a small profit.
An update on the midweek sport will follow tomorrow.