Online betting diary – November 2014

November 2014

25th November, 4pm

We’ve not placed a bet for a little while, so it’s time to put that right. Tonight there’s a massive Champions League game with a bit of appeal, and I think I’ve got just the bet for it!

Looking at the English teams, we’ve got a choice of

Schalke (5.1) v Chelsea (1.85) – Draw (3.7)


Man City (3.6) v Bayern Munich (2.1) – Draw (3.9)

What’s it to be?

Chelsea have some appeal at 1.85, but looking at the group I suspect that Mourinho would be entirely happy with a draw. It’s the sort of game they’ll keep tight, aim to score on the break, and absolutely aim not to lose. A draw leaves them well set to win the group in their final game, back at Stamford Bridge.

Man City face European heavyweights Bayern Munich again, having struggled throughout their latest attempt at Europe’s top table. They need a win tonight to remain interested in the competition, and even then they are looking for help from elsewhere. Munich are miles ahead, 4 wins out of 4 and safely through to the next stage as group winners.

So how will they approach tonight? To win as normal would be my guess, but, will knowing they’ve already got the job done lead to a bit of a reduction in their performance level? I suspect so. Inadvertently maybe, but against a team that absolutely has to win, this could make the difference.

Don’t get me wrong here, if we look back to one of Bayern’s recent visits to City we’ll recall that they absolutely battered them for a good portion of the game. Munich were 3-0 up at the Etihad and looking borderline invincible on their way to winning the competition. But that was when the result mattered, unlike tonight. Even then, City got back into that at 3-1 and could have made it even closer in the closing stages.

You may also recall that City went to Munich and turned them over on their own patch. So it’s far from a foregone conclusion tonight.

However, I still don’t fancy City as an outright bet. Lets pluck out the old favourite – the “Draw no bet.”

The odds on this market are as follow:

Man City 2.68
Bayern Munich 1.58

As you’ll know by now, a draw results in a REFUND of your bet. It’s a nice little insurance policy. Basically we are saying we fancy City to win, but we’ll take a lower price just in case they don’t. If they lose, fair enough, the bet goes down. At this price though, I think it’s undoubtedly a value call. Enjoy the football tonight, good luck!

Todays bet:

Tuesday 25th November, 19:45.

Man City v Bayern Munich, Champions League Group stage.

Man City to win in the DRAW NO BET market. £10 @ 2.68

17th November, 2pm

We’re going to steer clear of actually placing a bet, but we’ve been thinking about the England v Scotland friendly and reckon it’ll be a “proper” game.

There’s not really any such thing as a friendly between these two. Two bordering nations, two massive rivals, bragging rights for the fans. We suspect that the atmosphere at Celtic Park tomorrow night will feel more like the World Cup final than an irrelevant friendly match!

Both teams go into the game on the back of important qualifying win in their respective European groups. Scotland having beaten other nearby rivals Republic of Ireland in a fast, furious and fiercely contested game. England meanwhile slumbered through the first half against Slovenia, before finally waking up when Henderson gave Slovenia a headed head start! England sparked into action, quickly levelled and ran out comfortable 3-1 winners. It should have been a canter throughout, but perhaps it did actually need the own goal to wake England up!

So how does this leave them for tomorrow?

For my money, Scotland will struggle to compete with the same intensity against a better side. England should retain the ball better, work Scotland harder, and have the quality to take the chances they’re expected to make.

The betting shows that you can back England at even money, and I think this is a fair price. As I said earlier though, I’ll stop short of actually recommending a bet. You simply never quite know what will happen in these type of friendlies!

5th November, 4pm

Happy bonfire night! We’re into November already and the nights are drawing in, but the Premier League still feels a little stop / start. No sooner than a couple of games are strung together than we’re breaking for Internationals again. We’ve just had two weeks worth of fixtures, we’ve got next weekend, then it’s England again.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m an England fan and the upcoming game against Scotland should be a cracker. But a times it does really seem to disrupt the domestic season. Still, once these next games are over we’ve got a cracking run up to Christmas, and we’ll be looking at the games a little nearer the time.