Online betting diary – November 2012

November 2012

28th November, 11am

Last week we were hoping for a Man City win at home to Real Madrid, in a game they had to win to maintain any chance of Champions League progress. Unfortunately Real held them to a draw, and City will undoubtedly be disappointed with another early exit from the competition. They had the chance to win this as well, with Madrid reduced to 10 men for the last 15 minutes of the match. We knew it was an outside chance though, and only lose a small stake as a result.

Onto this week, we’re going to have a look at one of the Premier League matches being played tonight. All the top teams are in action, tonights fixtures are:

Chelsea v Fulham
Everton v Arsenal
Southampton v Norwich
Stoke v Newcastle
Swansea v West Brom
Tottenham v Liverpool
Man Utd v West Ham
Wigan v Man City

A decent selection of games! For those of you with satellite TV, you can watch the Wigan v Man City game live. The other highlights include Spurs at home to Liverpool, the West London derby, and leaders Man Utd at home to West Ham.

Having had a look at the various teams in action, I fancy a home treble tonight. Two of the three home sides are odds-on, but overall it mounts up to a reasonable price. Lets have a look at the three matches, and discuss why I think they are worth rolling into our bet:

1. Chelsea v Fulham. Rafa Benitez had a baptism of fire on Sunday, the fans making it absolutely clear what they thought of his appointment at the Bridge. The game itself was a let down, with both sides seemingly happy not to lose. Tonight should be a bit different, this is a local derby and as far as the fans are concerned, its an absolute must win. Although its not exactly a lengthy away day, Fulham do not play quite so well away from home. I think Chelsea will be strong enough here, and I’ve also got a sneaking suspicion that Torres might have something to do with it. Team 1, Chelsea at 1.47.

2. Man Utd v West Ham. United haven’t quite been themselves this year, yet they are still top of the table after a third of the season. West Ham are perhaps exceeding some expectations, currently sat in 8th place. Tonight though I think Man Utd will have too much for them, even if they give West Ham a goal start like they seem to be doing in most games! West Ham do have two wins away from home, but these were at under-performing Newcastle, and rock bottom QPR. Old Trafford is a different proposition, and I expect a routine United victory to boost the overall odds of our accumulator. Team 2, Man Utd at 1.25.

3. Spurs v Liverpool. This is the big price in our treble, but is largely based on the price against a Liverpool team that seems to set up for a draw in most away games. Liverpool have struggled away from home all season, having started with a 3-0 battering from West Brom, they have barely been any better in draws at the likes of Sunderland and Swansea. The only blip in this run was the single away win, taking all the points back from Norwich over a month ago. Spurs meanwhile are their usual hot-and-cold self, a great win one week followed by a poor defeat the next. However, they have had a couple of difficult games lately, with a return to form at the weekend when they hosted West Ham. Looking at Spurs home record, it suggests that this game is unlikely to finish in a draw, and assuming it doesn’t, I think it will be Spurs that take the points. The price seals the deal, significantly better than even money. Team 3, Spurs at 2.56.

Overall this treble comes to odds of 4.6. I think that’s a decent price for 3 strong home sides and has to be worth a shot with a small(ish) stake. Enjoy the games tonight, lets hope the home teams do the business!

Todays bet:

Wednesday 28th November. 7:45pm. Premier League treble.

Chelsea, Man Utd and Spurs to win. £5 @ approx 4.6

Enjoy the matches.

19th November, 1pm

Our last bet was last weekend when Liverpool travelled to Chelsea and came away with a well earned point. We had plumped for the Liverpool win in the “Draw no bet” market, so our stakes are returned on this one. Another close run thing, with Liverpool looking the more likely winner towards the end of the game.

This week we’re having a look at the Champions League, which is now approaching the end of the group stage. Of the English teams, only Man Utd are safely through, Chelsea and Arsenal have work to do, and Man City are looking for a miracle. However, with the fixtures this week, its entirely possible that all 3 teams could still go into the final round of matches with a chance of qualifying. If the miracle is going to happen for Man City, its going to have to start with a win over Real Madrid on Wednesday, and this is the game we’re looking at.

Prior to looking at the odds for the game, I was trying to work out what I would expect, should I decide to back City here. I concluded that they probably would be marginal favourites, on the basis of several factors:

They are the English Champions
They have a superb home record
They thrashed Villa 5-0 on Saturday
They came within minutes of winning in Madrid, only to throw it away
They absolutely have to win!

Shows what I know, the latest prices significantly different:

Man City 3.35
Real Madrid 2.2
Draw 3.95

According to the market, Man City are most definitely not favourites, far from it. In a game they absolutely have to win, this is a huge price. Will they win, could they still qualify? Its a big ask, but I would expect them to have a real go at Madrid, its all or nothing on Wednesday. Add into the mix the fact that Madrid have a relatively tough away assignment at Real Betis on Saturday, and that they could actually afford to lose and still qualify with a home victory over Ajax in the final game. I think there’s a decent bit of value in the price here.

So how do we approach a bet? All out on City, draw no bet, or even lay Real Madrid?

Draw no bet is one of my favoured options, but as we saw last time out, its often a case of stakes returned. This time, I’m going to stick my neck out and go all out for the City win. It’s not exactly nailed on, but the price is huge and I think the actual chance of the win is significantly better than the odds are suggesting. The alternative viewpoint is that if the odds are to be believed they won’t be good enough, so on that basis we’ll keep the stakes low.

Todays bet:

Wednesday 21st November. 19:45. Champions League group D.

Man City v Real Madrid. Man City to win. £5 @ 3.35

Good luck!

9th November, 5pm

Another winner to report! Despite the scoreline of 2-1, it really was a case of Man Utd thrashing Arsenal who managed to nick a late consolation goal. Lucky for our bet, as Manchester United had wasted a host of great chances and missed a penalty, and it was looking like we would fall short. Still, late goals in the Premier League at Old Trafford are hardly a rarity!

This week has seen the top teams back in action in the Champions League, and the groups have started to be sorted out. Man Utd are through despite some unconvincing performances. Man City are in trouble, Chelsea left it very late, and Arsenal still have work to do after throwing away a 2 goal lead. European action resumes in a few weeks time, and we’ll be previewing the deciding games a little closer to the time.

Back to the Premier League this weekend, and there are a couple of decent looking matches on the horizon. As is my preference for a bet, we’re going to go with one of the live games – I must confess to enjoying watching a game a little more when I’ve got a bet going on to spice things up!

So Sunday afternoon it is, 4pm to be exact. It’s Chelsea v Liverpool, a match that has rarely disappointed in recent years, especially if you’re a fan of Liverpool who have a fantastic record at Stamford Bridge. In fact, Liverpool have completed the double over Chelsea two years running, and also put them out the League Cup for good measure. The only positive result for Chelsea in the recent head to head was in the final of the FA Cup last year, which they won 2-1.

Given the way the two teams are looking at the moment, I think Liverpool could be a value bet. Chelsea have had a bit of a wobble of late, whilst Liverpool have also struggled for results, despite playing fairly well. At some point soon, their decent performances are going to turn into results. Will it be on Sunday against a Chelsea squad that is starting to look a little jaded? Lets have a look at the match odds:

Chelsea 2.0
Liverpool 4.1
Draw 3.8

Its a tough call. Even money for the home team, who are chasing the Manchester clubs at the top of the table. Or, just better than 3/1 for a team that is playing well but not finishing quite so well, and has a great recent head to head record.

I think its one for the draw no bet safety net. If pressed for a match result I think I would probably plump for the draw, but if there is to be a winner, I think it might just be the team in red. So we’ll have a small punt on the away win, knowing that we’ll get our money back if it does finish in a draw.

Todays bet:

Sunday 11th November. 4pm. Premier League.

Chelsea v Liverpool. Liverpool to win in the “Draw no bet” market. £10 @ 3.1

Enjoy the match!

1st November, 2pm

Into November already, and the football season is starting to take shape. We concluded our betting for October with a decent size punt on the Chelsea v Man Utd Premier League game, backing over 3.5 goals at 2.96. Even before kick off, a quick look at the team sheet on Sunday was full of good news for the bet, with Man Utd setting out with a very attacking line up. This was a game that was never going to be 0-0, and indeed United raced into a 2-0 lead within 20 minutes. Chelsea came back into it and had levelled it before the hour, bringing home the bet with plenty to spare. The rest of the game was marred with a decent amount of controversy, which was a shame given some of the attacking play we’d seen. Final score was a 3-2 away win for United, and our bet was an easy winner!

The goals haven’t let up either, this week we’ve seen two quite extraordinary games in the Capital One Cup. Firstly was Reading v Arsenal on Tuesday, finishing a quite incredible 5-7 after extra time. Then last night two very different Chelsea and Man Utd teams crossed swords at the bridge again. This time it was Chelsea who prevailed, winning 5-4, also after extra time. 21 goals in 2 games, the odds on that would have been enormous!

For our first bet in November, we look towards the Saturday lunchtime Premier League showdown between Manchester United and Arsenal. Traditionally two of the biggest rivals over the entire Premier League era, this is always a must-see match! Last year, Arsenal were on the receiving end of a famous 8-2 spanking, this time out they will certainly want to put on a better display. Lets have a look at the odds:

Match odds

Man Utd 1.71
Draw 5.4
Arsenal 4.1

Goals odds

Over 2.5 goals 1.66
Under 2.5 goals 2.48

Over 3.5 goals 2.62
Under 3.5 goals 1.58

Its safe to say that the market is expecting goals, and given the recent performances of both teams, its hard to disagree. However, I don’t see much value in any of these prices. 2.62 for over 3.5 goals is a touch short when we consider we had nearly 3s in the same market for the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Over 4.5 goals is pushing things somewhat, but comes at an interesting price of 4.7, significantly bigger than the 3.5 goals price.

So what’s it to be? I’m looking at the combined bet of match odds and goals, where there may be some value in backing Man Utd and over 2.5 goals together. A small wager, and although the prices are still to settle, we can expect around 2.6 for this bet. With the recent Arsenal record at Old Trafford, and the free scoring antics of both sides, this looks like decent value.

Todays bet:

Saturday 3rd November. 12:45pm. Premier League.

Man Utd v Arsenal. Man Utd and over 2.5 goals double. £10 @ approx 2.6

Enjoy the game!