Online betting diary – June 2012

June 2012

26th June, 12pm

Euro 2012 is rapidly reaching its conclusion, we’re up to the semi final stage and its fair to say that the 4 teams playing this week have been by far the best on show. We’ll look at the 2 semi finals in detail in a moment.

Our bet from the quarter finals was about a repeat of recent history, would England crash out yet again on penalties? The answer, yes. At least if there are any England followers out there who placed the bet there was a bit of profit as a consolation prize. We covered both teams for a possible shootout, and this was exactly what happened. We staked £10 for a return of £60.

So onto the semi finals, the line up is:


Spain v Portugal


Germany v Italy

The outright prices for the tournament are predicting that Spain and Germany will progress from these games, and it’s difficult to disagree. I’m sure Italy and Portugal will have something to say about it, but my expectation is for this one to go to form.

Moving onto the match odds, I must admit I was slightly surprised to see that Germany are rated a better chance to beat Italy than Spain are to beat Portugal. The odds on Betfair at the moment are:

Spain 2.0 v Portugal 4.7
Germany 1.96 v Italy 4.8

I disagree with this, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I think these odds are vastly under-rating the qualities of the Italians. Secondly, I think they are also failing to realise the strength of the Spanish. In short, I see a Spain win with little fuss, and a tight second semi which will probably be decided by a single goal.

So how do we approach this for a bet? Easy, we bet on Spain at the huge price of even money! For the second semi, Germany probably will shade it, but I wouldn’t touch them at that price.

Wednesday 27th June. 7:45pm. Euro 2012 semi final.

Spain v Portugal. Spain to win in 90 minutes. £10 @ even money

21st June, 12pm

We’re up to the quarter final stage of Euro 2012 and it has been a great tournament to date – not a single 0-0 yet! At the start of the tournament this was offered as a special by one bookie at odds of 18-1. If you’re on that you’ll be watching the remaining games with interest!

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the early part of the tournament was the complete failure of Holland, who have gone home with no points and just 2 goals from their 3 group games. Well done to Portugal who along with Germany were the teams that did make it out the so called “group of death.”

We’ve been a bit cautious with our betting so far this tournament, our first bet was for England to beat France in the draw no bet market. England did take the lead in this, but a strong response by France got them the equaliser and it finished 1-1. Stakes returned on this bet.

We’ve been looking at the quarter final line ups and again are looking at England for our bet. They face Italy on Sunday evening and the bookies are struggling to pick a winner. Depending on who you bet with either team can be considered marginal favourites, and over on the exchanges the market is putting England as the very slight favourite. It’s likely to be a tight game, with both teams defending fairly well so far (with the exception of 15 minutes of England against Sweden). For me, this game has the look of a repeat of recent history, so often England quarter final matches end in a draw and finish up with a penalty shoot out. I can see a tight game, and suspect if it does finish in a draw that we’ll then see a very cagey extra time. If this is the case we’ll be looking at penalties, and I think the odds here have appeal. The market leading odds here come from BetVictor, who make both teams a 10/1 shot to progress in this manner.

I’m not going to punt on who will come through the shoot out, so lets back them both.

Todays bet:

Sunday 24th June. 7:45pm. Euro 2012 quarter final.

England v Italy. England to win on penalties. £5 @ 11.0
England v Italy. Italy to win on penalties. £5 @ 11.0

Enjoy the games!

11th June, 12pm

Euro 2012 is underway and it’s been an interesting tournament already. Plenty of controversial decisions, an upset and some great football! We hope you are enjoying the feast of footy, and hope we can help you win a few quid along the way with a bet or two…

Today is the turn of Group D, with England v France up first followed by Sweden v Ukraine later tonight. We’re looking at Roy Hodgson’s men for our bet today. England head into the tournament with perhaps the lowest national expectations in a long time, and maybe this isn’t such a bad thing. They’ve wilted under the massive expectations before and it could be a chance for them to play some decent football without the ridiculous Ing-er-land over-expectations and hype that you normally see in the red tops.

Many of the headlines are about the missing players, and certainly there have been a number of big blows to the English squad. However, they are being replaced by solid premier league players and they will be desperate to take their chance to impress on the big stage. Yes, some of the likely starters tonight have their critics (Downing, Johnson are prime examples), but the spine of the team is rock solid. From back to front, the likely starting spine is Hart, Lescott, Terry, Parker, Garrard, Young, Welbeck. That’s a spine with Premier League winners and runners up, a Champions League winner, England most reliable midfielder in years, and one of the contenders for player of the season. If the players around them achieve as well, then perhaps England might actually surprise a few people.

A quick look at France. They are on a long unbeaten streak and under Lauren Blanc have had something of a revival. But remember their last few tournaments? Characterised by infighting they have capitulated to disasterous first round exits in both Euro 2008 and the World Cup 2010. They look stronger now, with a breed of dynamic, younger players who attack swiftly and effectively. But they do lack some of the experience of the English squad, with the exception of Evra who has seen and done it several times – but then again, he was at the centre of the problems in the last tournament.

With this in mind, we’re going to place a little wager on England, in the Betfair Draw No Bet market, where they can currently be backed at 2.26. With the security of the refund on the draw, this is an acceptable price for me.

Monday 11th June. 5pm. Euro 2012 group D.

England to beat France in the DRAW NO BET market. £10 @ 2.26