Online betting diary – February 2013

February 2013

28th February, 12pm

Apologies for the lack of updates this last week, we’ll be back in March.

19th February, 12pm

Sometimes it pays to buck the trend! We went under 2.5 goals on the Real Madrid v Man Utd match and collect our winnings after a 1-1 draw. There were certainly enough chances in the match for the overs to have come off, but as is often the case in football, the keeper has a blinder, or the strikers a nightmare. We took the value call, and its nice when it comes off. The match itself was a cracker, and the tie is perfectly set up for the return leg at Old Trafford in a couple of weeks.

We’ll look at that one nearer the time. Watch this space later in the week for a preview of the weekend football…

11th February, 12pm

Another fine weekend of Premier League sport, a shock Man City loss at Southampton has now seen the Premier League title race opened up to 12 points. If you can even get a price on United any more its not going to be a very big one, in fact one bookie has paid out on them all already!

Talking of Man Utd, this week sees one of the most hotly anticipated games of the season when Ferguson will be renewing his rivalry with Mourinho. It’s the first leg of the Champions League last 16, and on Wednesday the first leg will see United at the Bernabeu, before the return leg at Old Trafford a couple of weeks later.

Lets have a look at the odds.

Wednesday match odds:

Real Madrid 1.62
Draw 4.6
Man United 5.8

To qualify odds:

Real Madrid 1.64
Man United 2.62

Its not often you see such a big price on Man United! But this alone isn’t enough reason for a bet, lets have a think about how this could pan out.

Goals? Probably. Neither team has been consistently solid in defence this season, and both score plenty at the other end. It’s fairly obvious that United will want to come home with at least an away goal to their name, in fact you could argue that it’s likely to be essential if they are to progress. But does this justify the current price for the over 2.5 goals market?

Over 2.5 goals 1.69
Under 2.5 goals 2.44

This is a low price for an overs bet, particularly in the later stages of a contest like the Champions League. United have Vidic back and this has added some much needed steel to the centre of their defence. Will they be able to keep Madrid at bay? How will they set up? How would they react to conceding?

If United score first, we can realistically expect an onslaught! If Madrid score first, will United keep it tight or push for the equaliser? My guess is that Ferguson will pick a team to work very hard around the middle of the park in containing the attacking threats. Probably with Van Persie largely isolated up top, and Rooney playing a deeper role, to allow him to help the midfield out. They would take 1-1, they would take 2-1, they might even be happy with 1-0.

A quick look at the history books shows that United have successfully employed these sort of of defensive tactics in the past, notably in Barcelona a few years ago, when they came away with a 0-0 draw. If this is the plan again, I think there’s some value in bucking the trend of the market, instead taking some of the value from the under 2.5 price.

Remember that if you place this bet on Betfair you’ll be in a decent position to trade if the game stays tight for as little as 20 minutes. For the purposes of our bet though, we’re going to go all out for the Under 2.5 result.

Todays bet:

Wednesday 13th February. 7:45pm. Champions League last 16, first leg.

Real Madrid vs Man United. Under 2.5 goals £10 @ 2.44

5th February, 12pm

A good finish to January saw another winning month! We’ll soon be looking at some upcoming football to see if we can continue the run into February! Watch this space…