Online betting diary – December 2013

December 2013

30th December, 12pm

So the Christmas festivities are all but over, and 2014 is almost upon us. We’ve just got time for a quick review of the FBS betting diary this year, and a prediction for one of the New Year Premier League games.

We start with a look back at our results over the year. A quick count up of the month by month diary shows a pleasing profit of £134.80. Considering we only bet small, an average of just over a tenner a month is a decent return. A few beers every month to go along with all the top sporting action, mustn’t grumble eh?!

We’ve heard from a few punters who take our tips and increase the stakes, they’ll have had a very nice year. Still, we’ve always maintained that this is just a bit of fun, and it’s always vital to only play with money you are happy to lose. Winning is a nice bonus, but as we’ve seen throughout the year, you simply can’t legislate for a bizarre referring decision or a Premier League footballer spooning the ball into his own net!

We’ll carry on next year with the same approach, and if this time next December we’ve made another £100+ we’ll be delighted!

To finish the betting diary for 2013, we have a tip for a game that actually takes place in 2014. It’s the New Year’s Day full Premier League program, and the fixtures look like this:

Swansea v Man City (Early KO)
Arsenal v Cardiff
Crystal Palace v Norwich
Fulham v West Ham
Liverpool v Hull
Southampton v Chelsea
Stoke v Everton
Sunderland v Aston Villa
West Brom v Newcastle
Man Utd v Tottenham (Late KO)

As it’s not a standard Premier League Saturday, we’ve got the bonus of THREE live TV games. The two Manchester clubs take the early and late slots, with the Saints v Chelsea game the TV pick of the 3pms. A football feast to start 2014 then!

And our bet of the day concerns the middle of those 3 TV games, where there looks to be a decent price about Mourinho’s boys. Let’s have a look at the odds:

Southampton 4.2
Draw 3.65
Chelsea 2.04

For me, Southampton have just dropped off a tad from their stunning start. They were always likely to do so, but even so they will be disappointed to find themselves down in 9th. Chelsea meanwhile are within a couple of points of the top of the table, having recorded a couple of victories lately. I think the price on Chelsea reflects a couple of below-par away performances, including a loss at Stoke and a disappointing 0-0 draw with Arsenal. However, this is the sort game that they will be looking to win, and the way Southampton play (too nice?) might actually work in Chelsea’s favour.

There were signs in the Liverpool game that Chelsea’s midfield are going to be causing plenty of problems, even if the strikers aren’t banging in goals by the bucketload. I think they are going to have just too much for the Saints, and if I was guessing a price, I’d have put Chelsea odds-on, maybe around the 4/5 mark.

That we can get better than evens is therefore good enough, and we’ll take it on.

Today’s bet:

Southampton v Chelsea. Wednesday 1st January 2014. Premier League, 15:00.

Chelsea to win. £10 @ 2.04

All the best for 2014, let’s hope it’s another profitable one!

24th December, 12pm

Our last bet was a safety-first pick on Man United’s last Champions League group game. After a couple of scares in the first half, they won it with the only goal of the game mid-way through the second half. Phil Jones expertly volleying home from a corner that Shaktar failed to properly clear. A nice little win for us, and Man United would also have been relieved to finish top of the group.

A mention should also go to Man City, who recorded an impressive 3-1 win in Munich. I’ll happily admit that I’m due a slice of humble pie, having pretty much stated that City had no chance in Munich. Fortunately we didn’t back either side, and maybe the dead rubber element of that game that we mentioned did have something to do with it. Although if Pellegrini’s maths had been a bit sharper it could have been an even better night for City, as one more goal would have seen them win the group. If anyone had got involved in the Man City win at 1-0 behind they must have got a huge price!

There’s a lot of action over the Christmas period and we’ll be having one more bet before the year is out. There’s a full programme on Boxing Day, followed by another full program at the weekend, meaning some teams are playing again just 48 hours later! We’ll have a look at these and the early New Year program in our next update.

Merry Christmas from all the team at FBS, we hope 2013 has been a profitable and pleasant year. Enjoy the festive period!

10th December, 12pm

It’s a Champions League week, and we’re up to the final round of the group matches. A number of teams have already qualified, and it’s been a much more satisfactory year than previously for the English teams. Out of the four of them, only Arsenal have yet to cement their place, and for them to fail would require an unlikely swing from a 3 goal defeat. The main business this week will be confirming who finishes top and second (important for the next stage draw), and who makes it into the Europa League.

Some of these games are often referred to as “dead rubbers” – games that lack the importance of the earlier ones, and are consequently bereft of the competitiveness expected in a Champions League fixture. For this reason, they can be a nightmare when it comes to betting, particularly when attempting an accumulator. So I prefer to avoid the matches unless there is still an element of importance attached to it.

Fortunately for us, tonight we still have games where this is the case, and there are some interesting looking prices available, one of which stands out. It’s all eyes on the two Manchester teams tonight, lets have a look at the odds:

Man Utd 2.1
Draw 3.6
Shaktar 4.0

Bayern Munich 1.46
Draw 5.1
Man City 8.0

Despite the differing form of the two English teams in the Premier League, only one of these prices has appeal. Man Utd go into tonights game on the back of two home defeats, knowing that they need to avoid a third successive defeat to finish as group winners. Rooney and Van Persie are expected to lead the forward line, and I think they’ll get the job done.

Man City are away to arguably the best team in Europe, the same team that handed out an absolute schooling to them earlier in the campaign. With City’s questionable recent away form I can’t see any value at this price, they would need to be 12s or better for me to get involved. That said, I wouldn’t be backing Munich that short either, there’s just no value in the game at all.

So can Man Utd arrest the slump, having failed to even score in their last two home games. I think Rooney could make the difference tonight, having been badly missed at the weekend. Shaktar are no mugs though, so even though the outright price has appeal, maybe the safety net of Draw No Bet is the way to go. Remember that a draw would suit United, although you wouldn’t expect them to play for that at home.

Tonights bet:

Man Utd v Shaktar Donestsk. Champions League, 19:45.

Man Utd to win, in the Draw No Bet market. £10 @ 1.52

Enjoy the games!

5th December, 12pm

A cracking November for us, finishing well ahead thanks to the international football accumulator we pulled off a 17/1! Let’s hope for more of the same in December.

The next week fews are absolutely packed with football, with the major leagues all starting to take shape. Perhaps the biggest surprise so far has been the struggles experienced by largely the same Man Utd team under their new manager. Languishing down in 9th and well behind the front runners, they are in danger of being out of the title race before Christmas (if they aren’t already!) But with some winnable games on the horizon, perhaps they will be able to claw themselves back into contention. For my money though, this year it’s Arsenal to beat. They keep churning out the results, and might not have a better chance for a while.

The bookies still make Man City the strong favourites, with a price as tight as 6/4 generally available. I wouldn’t be touching that though, particularly after some indifferent away performances. Arsenal at 3.6 or so still has some appeal, and maybe Chelsea at 4.6? Man Utd at over 20/1 tells its own story! To be fair, I think that’s a price that actually offers some value, and may well be tradable if they get on a good run. I wouldn’t be putting too much on it though.

Our next bet will be next week, stay tuned!