Online betting diary – April 2015

April 2015

27th April, 12pm

Well that was easy! A winning return to form, with a tasty better-than-evens punt on Bayern Munich. As you’ll recall from last week, they had a deficit to overturn from their away leg at Porto, and we fancied they would be good enough to get the job done at home. I must be honest though, despite picking them out to progress, I never for a minute thought they’d do it in quite such style, it was a Champions League quarter final after all! However, Bayern came out all guns blazing, clearly intent on making the semis, and by half time were a quite remarkable 5-0 to the good!

The game was done and dusted, and a non-event of a second half saw Porto score a scant, late consolation with just left 15 minutes on the clock. Bayern wouldn’t even give them the satisfaction of winning a half though, extending the lead back to 5 goals by drawing level in the dying stages. None of which made any difference to the bet, which was long since won.

We’ll be back in early May with a look at the semis and the conclusion of the Premier League (amongst everything else going on!)

20th April, 4pm

We’re back! Apologies for the extended mid-season break, but normal service is now being resumed here at FBS. We might be approaching the end of another football season, but there’s plenty of action still to come with plenty still to play for. A little further down the page today is our look at this weeks Champions League action, and what we think is a great bet to get us going again.

But first we’ll have a quick review of where we are all things football. The Premier League is rapidly heading towards its conclusion, and I don’t think anyone can argue that Chelsea will be worthy winners. In all the recent fuss about the style of defensive performance, people seem to have forgotten just why Chelsea had such a lead in the first place.

It’s typical Mourinho, he might as well have written the script himself, as I don’t suppose he’d have wanted a single thing to be different. The first half of the season saw some sensational attacking performances, stylish winning football seeing them sat pretty at the top of the league. Essentially they did the hard work towards winning the league before February. What we’ve seen recently is them defending the lead they built against their closest rivals. Ok, so the QPR performance was nothing special, but as Jose knows its simply about getting the job done at this stage, and that is his bread and butter. The 1-0 win against Man United at the weekend saw another master class in game management, it’s about getting the points on the board and they’ve done it best.

The teams trailing Chelsea are still in a battle, and arguably all the places from 2nd – 7th could yet change a few more times. Perhaps it’s unlikely that Southampton can still get as high as 4th, but there’s plenty enough points to play for, and crucially, “6 pointer” type games between some of the teams involved still to come.

At the bottom we’ve recently seen a stunning run from lowly Leicester. Just weeks ago an absolute shoe-in for relegation, they’ve put some wins together and risen a couple of places to within sight of safety. Tough games to come, but they’ve given themselves a chance. For my money, the relegation places are going to the last day, it’s possible there will be 5 teams for the three spots on the final day.

In Europe it’s been another chastening year for the English teams, with all Champions League representatives failing to even reach the quarter final stage. We’ve seen strong European performances from the usual suspects though, with the likes of Barca, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all still involved. All of which brings me nicely to todays bet!

Tomorrow night Bayern Munich host Porto having lost the first leg in Portugal 3-1. Certainly a surprise result, it finished this way due to uncharacteristic Bayern defending, in fact they made mistakes for all three Porto goals, including giving away a penalty. But crucially they got themselves on the scoresheet, and the away goal could yet prove important. A 2-0 win for Bayern would do the job.

Looking at the prices, we’ve got the following in the match odds market:

Bayern Munich 1.35
Draw 5.7
Porto 10

So Bayern are a very strong favourite to win the game, and I certainly expect them to do so.

If we consider what is most likely to happen, it’s that Bayern score first and Porto are forced into a desperate rearguard action. Assuming Bayern can get the second, Porto will have to come out, and it’s at this point they could be there for the taking. Not many teams come away from the Allianz with much, and I don’t think Porto will either. Yet if we take a look at the prices for qualification, we suddenly find a much more appealing bet:

Bayern Munich 2.08
Porto 1.92

This is a great price for me, and certainly one for a decent outright punt. For those of you who like to trade on the exchanges I’d suggest it’s a prime contender for a back / lay approach, but that’s not going to be my recommendation here. Let’s push the button and go all the way!

Tuesday 21st April 2015, 19:45. Champions League quarter final, second leg.

Bayern Munich v Porto. Bayern Munich to qualify. £20 @ 2.08

Good luck, enjoy the midweek games!