Happy New Year!
30th January 2012, 3pm
The Carling Cup semi’s were eventful matches, we were perhaps a little unlucky to record just the one winner. Cardiff overcame Crystal Palace on penalties in the end, before Liverpool prevailed thanks to a draw with Man City. Given that City were ahead twice on the night our bet was looking good, but ultimately came unstuck with the second equaliser. We’ll settle for a small profit though.
Plenty to get stuck into this week with a full calendar of Premier League fixtures being played across Tuesday and Wednesday:
Swansea v Chelsea
Tottenham v Wigan
Wolverhampton v Liverpool
Everton v Man City
Man Utd v Stoke
Aston Villa v QPR
Blackburn v Newcastle
Bolton v Arsenal
Fulham v West Brom
Sunderland v Norwich
There are some interesting match ups here, plenty food for betting thought! We’re going to go for a couple of bets each day, if you like the look of both the they are potentially worth combining into a permed double.
Bet 1. Wolves v Liverpool. Liverpool were woeful for their last away league game, before raising themselves for two massive cup games against the Premier Leagues top two. I can’t see any value in backing Liverpool at odds-on, so instead lets have a punt on Wolves turning them over at Molineux. Wolves to win currently at 5.6 on Betfair, £5 bet.
Bet 2. Sticking with the same game, the covering bet is on the draw at 4s, again on Betfair. £5 on this as well, either bet winning would double our money at least.
Bet 1. Blackburn v Newcastle. We are going to take the same approach on Wednesday, with 2 bets on this game. Newcastle are without their main goalscorer Ba and have been finding things tough on the road of late. Blackburn are down towards the bottom of the table for a reason, but they have at least showed signs of improvement lately. The bookies make Blackburn narrow favourites for this one, and the layers at Betfair will currently give you 2.72, with Newcastle at 2.84. Lets have a fiver on Blackburn.
Bet 2. Same as above, we are hoping that the away team will not be good enough to win the game. Therefore we are also putting a fiver the draw which is currently available at 3.45.
If you fancy placing all the available doubles on this game it will be a total of 4 bets, to cover the following possible winning combinations:
Wolves win / Blackburn win
Wolves draw / Blackburn win
Wolves win / Blackburn draw
Wolves draw / Blackburn draw
I’m going to place these 4 bets with a stake of £2.50, for a total bet of £10.
24th January 2012, 4pm
Plenty of interesting football of late, the Premier League race is starting to look like there are just the 2 runners, although I’m sure plenty of twists and turns await! I certainly won’t be backing City at 1.5, or United at 3.5, although the latter looks more like value to me.
This week the main football action is the 2nd legs of the Carling Cup semis, with both ties currently separated by the respective 1-0 results a couple of weeks ago. With them being so tight, I can see some value in the Betfair “To qualify” market, which looks as follows:
Cardiff v Crystal Palace (agg 0-1)
Crystal Palace 1.88
Liverpool v Man City (agg 1-0)
Man City 3.25
Looking at Tuesdays game, Cardiff are odds-on favourite to beat Palace in 90 minutes, but just over even money to qualify. If they score first they will expect to win, and home advantage will be a big help particularly if the games runs into extra time. I can see them turning this one round.
For Wednesdays game, Liverpool are at home to Man City, but were frankly woeful at Bolton on Saturday. Man City scraped past Spurs with a little bit of good fortune, but their away record is better than a 3.25 shot to turn this around. It seems unlikely Liverpool will keep them out, and if City score first they could run away with it.
I’m placing two single bets here:
£20 on Cardiff to qualify @ 2.12
£20 on Man City to qualify @ 3.25
Either team to successfully turn around the deficit will be a profit, I fancy the chances of winning both of these! Fingers crossed.
9th January 2012, 4pm
So close to a clean sweep! Only Birmingham failed us in the accumulator, meaning a small profit (just over £2) from this bet. They had their chances as well, a single goal away from a decent return which would have been over £50. We’ll certainly try again.
This week there are a few league and cup games which I’ll be taking a look at. If there’s anything for us to bet on there will be an update here, watch this space!
5th January 2012, 12pm
We’re only a couple of days into the new year, but already the sport is coming thick and fast. It’s been an interesting few days, with all sort of results flying around in the Premier League. Bottom beating top, tight at both ends, it should be an exciting climax to the season!
For our first bet of the January I’m looking to the 3rd round of the FA cup, taking place this coming weekend. There are only a few David and Goliath type match ups, so if there’s going to be an upset it will be a big one! I’m struggling to see it myself, so am going to take on another accumulator, in the hope that we can pick a couple of decent priced winners to boost the low priced home bankers*:
SPURS v Cheltenham. 1.16
EVERTON v Tamworth. 1.14
LIVERPOOL v Oldham. 1.16
CHELSEA v Portsmouth. 1.22
BIRMINGHAM v Wolves. 2.44
Bristol Rovers v ASTON VILLA. 1.6
Gillingham v STOKE. 1.66
For the first three games, we have Premier League teams at home against lower or non-league opposition. Even with the likely rested players, the Premier League fitness and strength in depth should be more than enough to come through these.
Chelsea have been a bit up and down of late, although they did perform a little better at Wolves last time out. I think the key here is Portsmouth’s away record, which makes bleak reading over the last several months! I can see them taking anything back this time either.
Birmingham v Wolves is our first bet at higher odds. This looks like a value call to me, with well in excess of even money for the home side. Birmingham have a decent home record, Wolves have a poor away record. Yes, it’s a local derby, but I fancy Birmingham to just edge this one.
Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa looks another value call. Rovers have been dreadful at home, shipping goals to weak sides in their own division, let alone a Premier League side. Villa blow hot and cold, one week a limp home defeat, the next a win at Chelsea. Odds of 1.6 for them to prove the stronger side here have enough appeal.
Finally, Stoke to beat Gillingham away from home. The Gills are doing ok in League 2, but Stoke are a strong, established Premier League side now. The only recent blip in their form was the 3-0 reverse at Man City, but this was not exactly unexpected. Stoke will also fancy a run in this competition given their tough Europa League draw.
7 selections, so lets repeat the Super Heinz that came so close last time. 10p per selection is a total stake of £12. Fingers crossed!
* there’s no such thing as a banker. Just ask Man Utd, who were 1.14 to beat Blackburn at home last week!