28th December, 1pm
We dutched a number of correct score selections from the Liverpool v Fulham game last week, but were doubly let down by the performances. Liverpool turned on the style for pretty much the first time all season, knocking in 4 goals. Fulham, typically poor away from home, were woeful. It finished 4-0, not the contest we’d hoped for and the bet was well and truly beaten.
We’ll leave Liverpool well alone for our final bet of 2012, their mixed form has seen two 3-1 defeats either side of that 4-0 thrashing of Fulham, you simply don’t know which team will turn up. So, where are we going for the last bet of the year? Hopefully to a strong selection that should finish the year on a winning note. As is our preference, we are sticking with the Premier League, with the following fixtures coming up this weekend:
Arsenal V Newcastle
Aston Villa V Wigan
Fulham V Swansea
Man Utd V West Brom
Norwich V Man City
Reading V West Ham
Stoke V Southampton
Sunderland V Tottenham
Everton V Chelsea
QPR V Liverpool
I’ve had a look through the prices here and there is one that stands out to me. Have a look for yourself and see what you think, then read on.
My selection is from the Saturday games, where I was delighted to find Spurs at better than even money away to Sunderland. I suspect that this price is somewhat skewed by Sunderland’s win over Man City last time out, but for me this price is just too big to ignore. Spurs were superb in the 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa, with a fantastic hat trick from the returning Gareth Bale. The Sunderland win was against the run of play, with the stats showing that City had significantly more of the ball, more shots on and off target and more corners. Basically it was a smash and grab job by Sunderland. Well done to them, but I don’t think they will be able to pull it off again against free flowing Spurs.
I’ve debated the draw no bet market for this, but I think the value lies in the outright price. On this occasion I strongly fancy the Spurs win, so lets make the most of it if they do. Its our last bet of 2012, lets hope they do the business!
Saturday 29th December. 12:45pm. Premier League.
Sunderland v Spurs. Spurs to win. £10 @ 2.14
Fingers crossed for a decent match and a winner to finish the year.
We hope you have enjoyed our betting diary during 2012. Best wishes for the New Year, lets hope together we can make it another profitable one!
20th December, 12pm
Less than a week to Christmas, I hope you’ve nearly finished the shopping! This will be the final betting diary before we unwrap our pressies, although we will be back before the New Year with a look at the hectic schedule of upcoming games.
Last week we were looking for a strong home performance from Newcastle against Man City. They did ok for the first couple of minutes, but then City really turned on some sensational attacking football. The first goal looked to be coming during a spell of pressure that had Newcastle chasing shadows around their own penalty area, and sure enough Aguero found the net from close range after just 10 minutes. Shortly afterwards it went to 2-0 and although Newcastle started the second half strongly, they never really looked like finding the equaliser. Indeed it was Man City who struck next to finish the contest. We had a decent price on Newcastle, and I’m sure we’ll be looking at one of their home games again for a bet in the near future.
Onto today, and in case you’ve had your head in the sand this morning, the Champions League draw has just been made. There are some truly mouthwatering ties to look forward to in the New Year. Here’s the full list:
AC Milan v Barcelona
Arsenal v Bayern Munich
Celtic v Juventus
Galatasaray v Schalke
Porto v Malaga
Real Madrid v Manchester United
Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund
Valencia v Paris St Germain
The tie of the round is undoubtedly Real Madrid vs Manchester United, and the return leg will be the first time Ronaldo has been back to Old Trafford since his record breaking move to the Bernabeu. After several years of stunning performances at United he’s guaranteed a warm welcome by the Old Trafford faithful, but they’ll be hoping the second leg home advantage will see him dumped out the competition! This promises to be a cracker, the date for your diary is towards the end of February and the return in early March.
Back to domestic affairs, and the Premier League is in full swing over the busy Christmas period. Most of the teams have 3 matches in the remaining 11 days before the New Year, then they are all back in action again on New Years Day! A frantic period with a huge amount of points up for grabs. The table is already taking shape, and in a few weeks time we are likely to have a much clearer picture at both top and bottom.
For our bet today we’re going to have a look at the evening TV game on Saturday, which sees Liverpool hosting Fulham. Without further ado, lets have a look at the odds:
Liverpool strong favourites then, as you’d expect at Anfield. But a look at the table shows the two teams right next to each other in 12th and 13th. And a look at their respective records makes for interesting reading too. Liverpool were undone last time out at home to Villa, and Fulham have been drawing or losing all their recent away games. I can see this as the sort of game Fulham will set up not to lose, and I wouldn’t be that surprised if they can achieve it. Liverpool have had a record of drawing exactly this sort of game over the last few seasons.
So how do we approach it for a bet? I fancy going dutch! Dutching is the process of backing multiple selections in a market, with the aim of achieving a profit by hitting the winning outcome amongst them. If required, you can back different amounts to achieve the same profit no matter which of the results comes in, or you can back them unevenly, i.e. weighted towards the result you feel is more likely.
For this game, I fancy that it will be tight and low scoring. We’re going to back the low-scoring draws, and a narrow low-scoring Liverpool win. As we’ve got several selections the stakes will be small. If you prefer, you can of course include other results in your bet, but this is what I’m going for:
0-0. £2 @ 17.0
1-0. £2 @ 9.4
1-1. £2 @ 9.2
2-1. £2 @ 9.6
and as a couple of even smaller cover bets:
3-1. £1 @ 13.0
2-2. £1 @ 19.0
This gives a total stake of £10. Good luck, and enjoy all the upcoming football over the festive period. Best wishes for a cracking Christmas and a prosperous New Year!
Saturday 22nd December. 17:30. Premier League.
Liverpool v Fulham. Various correct score bets, as above. Total £10
13th December, 7pm
We’d like to start today with a quick well done to Bradford City after their Capital One cup tie on Tuesday. They are going well in league two, but hosting Arsenal was an entirely different proposition. They put in a superb performance and were only denied an outright victory by an 88th minute Arsenal equaliser. Instead, they hung on through extra time then knocked out the Premier League side on penalties! A classic cup shock on a freezing Tuesday night in Yorkshire. Congratulations to them, and good luck in the semi-final.
This weekend sees a full Premier League programme, and this is where we’re looking for our bet. Lets have a look what the fixture compiler has in store for us.
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Man Utd v Sunderland
Norwich v Wigan
QPR v Fulham
Stoke v Everton
Tottenham v Swansea
West Brom v West Ham
Reading v Arsenal
The early TV game on Saturday is certainly one of the bigger games of the weekend, with Newcastle hosting Man City. Can City bounce back from derby defeat? Can Newcastle halt their recent slide that has seen just one win in the last 7 games? Lets see what the bookies make of it:
Man City 1.7
So Newcastle are rank outsiders, even on their own patch. I think there’s some value to be had from this game, although maybe not in the match odds outright, instead lets have a look at one of my favourite markets, the Draw No Bet market:
Man City 1.3
To me, Newcastle are priced too high here. They won their last game convincingly (3-0, albeit against a Wigan side that played most of the game with 10 men), but more importantly there were signs of improvement. But my main reason for considering Newcastle here are is much about Man City’s away form. They haven’t travelled well, and their away record is actually fairly poor, especially if you consider their Champions League performances.
Of course City will go into this game as favourites, but I think a price of better than 3/1 about a home win is reasonable. With the added insurance of our money back if its a draw, this is good enough for a bet for me.
Saturday 15th December. 12:45pm. Premier League.
Newcastle v Man City. Newcastle to win in the Draw No Bet market. £5 @ 4.3
Lets hope for a decent game!
11th December, 2pm
Hopefully you followed the tips last week before the Manchester derby? We were very close to a clean sweep, the FBStipster absolutely on the money in terms of the way the game panned out. We came up short on the first half goals, but the predicted fast start from United did indeed materialise around 15 minutes in and they took a 2-0 lead into the break. A few people have written in to point out that the odds closer to the game were actually a fair bit better than those when the FBStipster recommended this bet. Particularly on Betfair, where they drifted out to almost 3/1 (4.00) prior to kick off.
A decent start to December, and we’ll be looking to add to this when the Premier League resumes at the weekend. Watch this space for an update later in the week.
8th December, 1pm
Already into December! Another year flown by, hopefully you are ready to enjoy the festive season. We finished November feeling a little let down by Chelsea, who were the only team to fail in our accumulator. Rafa isn’t the most popular manager around eh?! Shame, but we kept the stakes small for this one so November finishes just in profit – the final score being +£6 to the good.
We’re going to start December with a look at the biggest Premier League match of the season so far, the Manchester derby tomorrow lunchtime. The two Manchester giants are just 3 points apart at the summit of the Premier League, and looking at the struggles of the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs, we could well be set for another 2 horse race this season. As it stands, United hold a 3 point advantage that belies their performances to date. City haven’t quite been firing on all cylinders either, but signs are there lately that they are getting stronger.
So how does the market see this one? Over to Betfair for the latest prices:
So City are favourites, and it looks like a winner is expected tomorrow with the draw the least likely result according to these odds. Normally, I would be interested in the Draw No Bet market for a match like this, but with the draw seen above as the least likely result, it might be one to swerve on this occasion. Also worth noting at this stage that United are yet to draw a game all season, in any competition.
So if we’re to have a stab at the match odds, lets have a think about the two contenders:
City. Rock solid at home? Unbeaten on their own patch since Everton turned them over in 2010. Check. Form improving. Check. Squad largely injury free? Check. Had the edge over United last season, and will look to make up the three points this time tomorrow. You can guarantee the home fans will create a hostile atmosphere, and will be baying for the home team to do the business. My main question at this stage would be how attacking does Mancini play this? If he starts with the pairing of Tevez and Aguero you can be sure that the United defence is in for a busy afternoon.
United. Despite a season of unconvincing performances, lots of goals conceded and chasing games, United ultimately are top. Whats more, its been away from home against the bigger sides that they have pulled out their best performances. Wins at Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle are testement to this. I would hazard a guess that a fast start tomorrow will be absolutely essential if United are going to win this game. A quick look back to last season shows us what happened on 2 different meetings of these sides at the Etihad:
1. FA Cup. An attacking United go for the jugular and are a remarkable 3-0 up by half time.
2. Premier League. A stuttering United within reach of the title go all defensive and set up for the draw. They don’t play well and lose 1-0.
The other league match last season lives long in the memory, and is something Ferguson would surely like to banish with a convincing victory tomorrow. Can they do it? I’m not sure, but I think the odds are just about good enough to try a small bet on it. But I’m going to combine it with an even smaller bet on there being a few goals in the first half. If United start strong and score the first couple of goals, we could take home both bets at a decent price!
Sunday 9th December. 1:30pm. Premier League.
Man City v Man Utd. 2 bets:
1. Man Utd to win. £5 @ 3.4
2. First half, over 2.5 goals. £3 @ 7.5, price available at Coral
Enjoy the game!