Online betting diary – August 2012
31st August, 3pm
We were so close with our last bet, the two longer-odds selections coming home, but Arsenal at 1.44 letting us down. It wasn’t for a lack of chances either, Arsenal and particularly Oliver Giroud missed some guilt edged chances, consigning our bet to the nearly pile.
The season long picks have got off to an interesting start. Man Utd lost their first game and have now lost Rooney for a month. This could be good news for the Van Persie top scorer pick, as he looks a certain starter in the meantime. Swansea completely confounded my expectations with a superb 5-0 away win on the first day, the 2/1 price for relegation isn’t looking so good now. Still, its early days and we’ll continue to monitor these.
Tonight its the European Super Cup, pitting the Champions League winners of Chelsea against Europa League winners Atletico Madrid. The match takes place in Monaco, so no home advantage for either side. Current betting shows Chelsea as favourites to win the match, but only fairly marginally. They are generally priced at 6/4 (2.5) for the win in 90 minutes.
Its early in the season, but current form shows 3 wins from 3 for Chelsea, and a win and a draw for Madrid. On the basis on Chelsea’s attacking form, I suspect we could be in for a decent game tonight and certainly at least a couple of goals. The Over 2.5 market is priced pretty much evenly, although with a slight lean towards unders. I am tempted to oppose this, but also fancy a punt on Chelsea outright.
Over at Betfair, there’s a fairly recent new market that has been added to the top football matches, this is a double of match odds and over 2.5 goals. Its still a bit short on pricing for the game tonight, but there are odds available for the Chelsea / Over 2.5 goals double. The best price is currently 3.1, but I suspect we could do slightly better than that. Even at 3s it strikes me as a decent price. Its also a very tradable market should Chelsea get an early goal, although for the purposes of the diary, we’ll stick with an outright bet:
Friday 31st August. 7:45pm. European Super Cup Final.
Chelsea v Atletico Madrid. Chelsea to win, over 2.5 goals double on Betfair. £5 @ 3.1 (or better – check nearer to kick off)
16th August, 3pm
The Olympics have finished, and our betting interest in the Olympic football ended with the mens final on Saturday. The slightly surprising result was a 2-1 win for Mexico, who had been much sharper than the fancied Brazilians for most of the game. We were perhaps a little unlucky that the bet went down by the single goal, particularly as Brazil had a very good chance to take it to extra time just before the full time whistle went. For anyone out there who was trading goals on this game it had started in the perfect way, Mexico scoring after just 30 seconds! If you are on an overs bet and this happens it is often worth pulling out some of the stake to leave yourself a guaranteed profit or a no lose bet on the remainder of the game.
The Olympic closing ceremony took place on Sunday night and a whirlwind 2 weeks of stunning action came to a close. A fantastic games in every possible way for the hosts, London putting on a show of epic proportions, and the Team GB athletes putting in the performances to match. Roll on Rio in 2016!
We’ll be placing a few more bets before the next Olympics though! In fact, there’s barely been a pause for breath before the football resumed. Some leagues have started already, England played a friendly last night and of course, the Premier League is back this weekend! It’s like football has never been away.
Before we have a look at a bet for the opening weekend, here are 3 predictions for the new Premier League season, along with the odds you can get for them. Take a look at the prices and get involved if you fancy!
Premier League winner – Manchester United. 3.25. William Hill
Key thinking – So close last time, they will want to wrestle the trophy back from the notorious noisy neighbours!
Premier League top scorer – Robin Van Persie. 10. Coral
Key thinking – Bringing in last seasons Premier League top scorer from one of their huge rivals is surely a signal of intent. *IF* he can stay fit, he will be right up there with the likes of Aguero, Tevez, Rooney and Torres. At Manchester United he will probably get even more service than at Arsenal, the results could be spectacular. I would consider placing this as an each way bet in case fitness is an issue, you can get 4 places at Coral for 1/4 the odds.
Premier League relegation – Swansea. 3. Betfred
Key thinking – They had a decent Premier League campaign last time out, but towards the end they tailed off quite significantly. They head into the notoriously difficult second season without 2 key men, manager Brendan Rogers and midfielder Joe Allen, who have both moved to Liverpool. They are going to find it tough this time round.
I’ll be having a few quid on each for a bit of fun, and will keep you updated with the progress as the season unfolds.
Finally for today, lets get a bet down for the first day of the Premier League! There’s only pre-season form in the bank, but there are a few other factors we can look at to get a clue about the states of the teams. The Saturday matches are:
Arsenal V Sunderland
Fulham V Norwich
QPR V Swansea
Reading V Stoke
West Brom V Liverpool
West Ham V Aston Villa
Newcastle V Tottenham
Obviously they will all be looking to get off to a decent start, but there are a few possible banana skins here, particularly for the likes of Liverpool and Aston Villa. We’ll avoid any away day horror shows and stick with a home team treble, as follows:
Arsenal @ 1.44
Fulham @ 1.83
Newcastle @ 2.7
Total price is therefore around 7.1, just better than 6/1. Lets have a look at each pick and you should see why this could be a very good price.
Arsenal. I fancy an immediate response from the loss of RVP. They will want to get this behind themselves, and with Podolski taking his place up front, they will soon have forgotten all about him. Sunderland will have to travel the length of the country for this one, and I am certain they will head home empty handed, as Arsenal set down a post-RVP marker.
Fulham. Generally a solid team at home, Fulham face a Norwich side that finished 5 points below them last time round. Fulham will be looking to improve upon 9th place, if they are going to achieve this, they must win games like this.
Newcastle. This is the outsider of the treble, but this means big odds that roll up our accumulator nicely. They are facing a Spurs side that look set to lose their best player in the next day or two, and who will have to travel to the fortress that St James Park was turned into last season. Is it too early to call this match a 6 pointer in the 4th place race? Probably! But I think it might give us some clues about how the two teams will fare this season, and my guess is that Newcastle will come out on top this time round.
Saturday 18th August. Premier League football treble.
Arsenal, Fulham, Newcastle all to win. £5 @ 7.1
Good luck! Enjoy the start of the new season!
9th August, 12pm
Our last bet was in the Olympics football and our man got the result wrong, but still brought home a winning bet! This is the beauty of the overs and unders goals markets, where the result is irrelevant. In fact it can be a great way for a neutral to bet on the game, especially when cheering for as many goals as possible from either team! We start the month £16 to the good.
We’re into the last few days of the Olympics, with the closing ceremony coming up on Sunday night. It seems to have been well received all around the world, a triumph for British sport and a medal haul to match.
We’re going to stick with football for our final bet of the Olympics, which is for the men’s final on Saturday. Brazil take on Mexico for the Olympic gold at 3pm, and it is shaping up to be a decent match. Brazil are strong favourites, but I think Mexico will fancy their chances too. Lets have a look at the current prices:
Given the brand of football both teams have played this tournament, goals are positively expected. The Over 2.5 market shows:
Under 2.5 2.22
Over 2.5 1.82
And the Over 3.5 market shows:
Under 3.5 1.49
Over 2.5 3.1
Essentially these markets are predicting a game that is likely to have 3 goals. Given what I’ve seen of both teams so far, I think there is value here in going 1 goal more. Both teams have scored plenty, and the Mexico defence in particular have been a little leaky. 3-1 to Brazil seems like a reasonable punt for a correct score, but again, we’ll go with the goals market rather than the correct score market. There are of course, many other scores which will be good enough. Enjoy the last few days of the Olympics, our next bet will be next week for the start of the Premier League!
Saturday 11th August. 3pm. Olympic men’s football, gold medal match.
Mexico v Brazil, over 3.5 goals. £10 @ 3.1
6th August, 12pm
We’re just starting the second week of the London 2012 Olympics, and it has been a spectacular tournament so far! A stunning opening ceremony has been followed up by some incredible feats on bike, in the water and on the track. Team GB are currently 3rd in the medal table, without doubt exceeding most peoples expectations at this early stage. Lets hope these fantastic games continue throughout the final week.
Our last bet in July was an accumulator on 3 Olympic football matches. Unfortunately a rather disappointing performance from the young Spanish team put paid to our chances straight away, losing 1-0 to a disciplined, if unspectacular Japan side. Brazil did go on to win their game, but team GB could only manage a draw with Senegal, after a late equaliser lead to a 1-1 draw.
The football tournament is now up to the semi-final stage, with both semis taking place tomorrow. Team GB sadly will not be taking part after losing out in yet another penalty shoot out! With the Premier League kick off just a couple of weeks away, perhaps penalty taking is on the agenda for pre-season training this year!
For our bet today we’re going to have a look at the goals market in the first mens semi final tomorrow. This match takes place at 5pm at Wembley, and will see Mexico take on Japan. After a look at the goal markets, I’ve got my eye on a decent price in the Over 2.5 market, with current prices looking like this:
Over 2.5 goals 2.66
Under 2.5 goals 1.59
I can understand where this price comes from, both Mexico and Japan have had a few cautious matches to date, particularly in the group stage. However, the quarter finals were a slightly different story, Japan won 3-0, and Mexico came through 4-2 (AET, FT 2-2). The Mexican team in particular gives me hope for an overs bet here, they are a talented attacking side, but looked a little wobbly at the back. Japan will try to keep things tight, but are certainly good enough to score at least a couple. If the match does open up, I could see a 2-1 or 3-1 to Japan here, either of which would be good enough to bring home a bet on over 2.5 goals. I think it’s worth a go at this price, enjoy the games!
Tuesday 7th August. 5pm. Olympic men’s football, semi final match.
Mexico v Japan, over 2.5 goals. £10 @ 2.66